COTTON PICKIN - COTTON TO DECLINE?

Here is a market that is setup about as well as something can be for a decline - COTTON

First off we are right at the time of the year where the seasonal pattern calls for a top and that is especially significant considering that we have been following the seasonal very very tightly for months now. Next, we have our good friends to fade the small speculators heavily bullish in a big long position. This is also happening with the commercials heavily short. In the world of COT analysis it does not get much better than this.

This is a very thin market so we have to be careful how we get into this trade. I do not see a daily entry setup yet, the above is a weekly chart. It is time to start looking for a short position in this market.

I do not have any divine wisdom to bestow upon stock market folks, the trend is up and that is that. We are in an area where a short term turn could be setting up. I am teaching a pattern in the Newsletter this month that is setup right now. I think readers will enjoy this one. It is a setup like the above but not related to COT data. It is a setup in the sense that it is not an immediate entry situation, it is a setup to begin looking for one from. It is not infallible, neither is anything else. I also cover a setup in the Bond Market right now.

I think what I am going to do is have featured setups in the members section of the new site, with some explanations of what they are and why they are setups.

PFG UPDATE

There is no real new news here. Offers from bad debt buyers are .40 for 4d and .10 for Forex. Now the pissing contest begins over how to divy up the remaining assets which are far less than what is needed. Nobody is going to come out well in this, it will be the biggest loss in history on a percentage basis of all of these situations. In perusing the court docket section I notice there are many duplicate claims which are being backed out. As a result the total claim amount vs what is there is going to improve some as far as distributions go. It is anybody's guess when another distribution might occur but my gut tells me no sooner than June and perhaps much longer. I have no inside information and have stopped following it for the most part except when this one idiot from a bad debt company keeps calling me forgetting he has already called 10 times.

If you are a victim like me I would suggest just forgetting about this it does us no good to worry about it. We got screwed and it is what it is. Others will befall the same fate so maybe when the next one happens and it will, we can do something to help them. I don't know what it might be but it is good to focus on something positive. The money is gone and it is not coming back other than some small next distribution that won't be much.

Good Trading