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Thursday, June 08, 2006

Click to enlarge on this image if need be, there are two lines that need to be viewed. This is an intra-day chart of T-Bond futures. We are short this market in my daily trading service, and the trade is going against us. Often, there is a "flight to quality" in the midst of severe stock drops.

I have posted this chart so that you can see they divergence between price, and an indicator below, which measures insider buying and selling. Often, but not always, when the insider buying lags the price movement, the price movement is reversed.

This is just for those of you who may want to trade off an intraday chart. I do not. However, while observing the markets over the years, I have noticed that this type of formation on a short term trading basis can be of value. At times a price move can just keep going in the face of this, effectively, eliminating the divergence.

As a result, these divergences need to be used carefully. You can also see one at the low before this upmove, where the price was dropping, and the insiders were not making new lows. This divergence, would have helped someone possibly spot this upmove that has occured.

Time will tell if this is a sign, that this trade will come back in our direction. Like everything else, this needs a trigger to go with it, so that you do not just step in front of the freight train blindly.

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