Here is the update daily S&P 500 chart
We are clearly in a downtrend at this point. The blue line is a basic trendline, just to mark that. Below, it can be seen that the commercials have gotten long this market.
As I have repeatedly told everyone, this does not mean run out and buy stocks. There is a seasonal down tendency into the fall from here. Also, the bond market has been in a down trend. These two things will act as a deterent to a rally from here.
However, with the commercial being long, we could see a bounce here. I think if it occurs, it will be a selling opportunity, for those who have not gotten out of the market yet. I still expect a big buy point to set up in the fall for stocks. There is no reason to get too excited about the long side yet, itleast until that trendline is broken.
This is the 10th instance in the month of June since 1985, that the commercials have been long. In 7 of the prior 9, the market went on to make a lower low in the fall, setting up the buy point. In the two exception years, where the market went straight up, the bond market was in a major uptrend at the time. The bond market is in a downtrend right now.