Bonds Living Dangerously?

Here is a daily chart of Bonds and the retracement that is taking place. The blue line marks the uptrend, which is still intact. This could just be a normal pullback and my system will probably have buy signals for Monday after today if we close here. I really wanted to short this market today last night, but the pattern just did not line up well enough. When in doubt, I stand aside.

However, for the gloom and doomers out there, if we break this uptrend that will be trouble for the stock market. Lower rates have driven this rally recently, and if that underpinning is removed I think stock prices will drop off.

You can see that seasonally we are due for a little drop here at the beg of October. This could very easily just setup a nice bull flag for a long entry. Let's hope this uptrend holds. The heavy commercial short position is a fly in the ointment here as you can see at the bottom of the chart. They have been early to the party. It will be interesting to see if the commercials have lightened up their longs in the SP 500 on today's report, I bet they have.