BONDS

Well things have certainly changed. No matter how we draw the trendline upward it has broken at this point. I had mentioned that I was suspicious of this uptrend but until the trend broke pullbacks were long entries. The reason for that suspiciousness on my part was that we had reached the 2.0 std deviation point at the highs, so we were very extended. This along with the commercials being heavily short were reasons for caution. These influences negated long entries that "might" have generated on the initial drop.

The trend has now broken. It still could be what we call a bear trap meaning this is a sucker move to lure bears in before moving higher, but it certainly does not feel that way. No matter how I test this pattern right here it is bearish. We are getting oversold, so we may get a buy signal here shortly in the trading service.

We do have a strong seasonal bias up for Friday so maybe that will bring a bounce upward, but this market appears to be in some trouble overall at this point. If we continue down, this is going to cause some problems for the stock market. So far we are only at 15 day lows, but if we get to 30 day lows it will be trouble in river city.