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Saturday, June 27, 2009

I said in my last post that I thought the bond market has a ways to run and as you can see it is doing so. Pullbacks are a buy in this market now likely through October. I had stated that we needed a higher low to confirm the trend change and as you can see we have gotten that now, so the trend is up, buy the dips. Do not get tied up in this bullshit from the gold bugs about how interest rates have to sky rocket based on all the money we are printing, blah , blah, blah. I would bet I make more money on one good trade than these clowns do in a year. Although they do charge a 30% commission, so I guess they are not that dumb. They can snooker the public better than most people.

Regardless of any fundamental analysis we might do the price action needs to confirm that or it is all bunk. The trend is up now so until it breaks back down, buy the dips and tune out the noise.

Also most currencies look like they are topping here which means the dollar is likely to have an upleg here which would be consistent with the long term cycles.

2 comments:

robert said...

Hey Chris,

Okey-dokie, with a 1-2-3 trend reversal in the bonds - and because seasonal factors favor rising prices (lower interest rates) as well - what ETF would you use to play the bonds?

BTW, I always read your posts and like your work a lot.

Robert Campbell

Chris Johnston said...

Hey Robert, hope things are going well. The TLT should suffice as a proxy for 30 yr bonds, it is the 20year proxy so pretty close. We may actually get a short term short sale opp before the next buy sets up.