AM I A TRAITOR?
I have been consistent in my view that GOLD is the biggest bubble in history, so how in the world could I be long?
First, that big picture view as I have explained repeatedly is just that, BIG PICTURE. Bubbles as we have seen can inflate for quite some time before they crash. Real Estate certainly showed us that. I was convinced there was a bubble there before I actually cashed in on my Newport Coast Mc Mansion. I exited that "trade" in 2005 but was convinced before then that a big bubble was at hand. There was still so much momentum going upward there in 2003 or so that it just seemed to be it would keep going for awhile, but there was not a doubt of what would eventually happen.
I see this as no different here at all, other than more people are sucked into a bogus story in GOLD. However, that does not mean I do not think short term opportunities to make money on the long side are no good. This above trade entered yesterday kind of matches up with the seasonal tendency in this market for a rally at this time of year. As a result once I got a shorter term pattern, I decided to go long. Is this trade any good? Who knows! My patterns that I look for were there so I took a shot. If this works out does it mean my bubble theory is wrong?
No, of course not. These are two completely different time frames. There is no reason at all from a big picture standpoint, to be short this market yet for the penultimate meltdown that is surely coming at some point. That type of trade should be done on a weekly chart on a break of major support levels, which is nowhere near happening right now. It is nothing more than idle chat at the moment. However, I do encourage people to do their own research as to what has caused GOLD to move in the past and what has not. What you will find is the reasons being put forth by the gold hucksters as to why it should continue into the stratosphere have never created a GOLD rally in the past. It may for the first time ever, who knows, but I maintain for that reason it is a bogus premise.
I always want to trade or invest on a valid premise, not an arcane idea of what might happen for the first time ever. Once again I apologize for Blogger, they have jumped the shark apparently. I am just not going to spend hours f.....ing around with HTML code to make this look like it used to.