First off a clarification, apparently BQ is the person I have to correctly credit for making me aware that it was he/she that made me aware they viewed alot of pages, hence saving the blog. My apologies there I guess I did not read through the posts correctly. Also BQ to clarify, I did not fork out the 10k. LW had another seminar for a select group of prior students before that one where the price was half that. The 10k is the second edition, and it is why he charged more to them. There was no requirement of having attended the prior stuff there, hence a larger fee. They too were given the new tool as part of the fee.
I have used the new tool to check out some COT stuff and am pleased to announce that it does seem to verify my prior conclusions. For the most part conditions such as we see above which I had concluded recently were not immediately bearish, are in fact confirmed to not be. What does chart does show is that we do have a speculative blow off going on right now. I know I have always said that these can go on for quite awhile before making tops. We have certainly seen this in GOLD a couple of times to name one other market. When I ran the new tool on this it shows a continued rise in price in the near term.
I think the reason this happens is that once you get momentum going in something regardless of who is driving it, it becomes a tough task to reverse that move. Eventually what does happen is a shift, then an acceleration in the opposite direction once the weak hands get scared. This takes time and it is why tops normally are rounded and not spikes. This is certainly a market I am watching closely now for a shorting opportunity. In all honesty I have for awhile and missed this last leg up, shame on me it was a beauty.
There are certain COT conditions though that do test out for more immediate moves via this new tool, and I will show those from time to time when they are present and part of a reason I did something.
We now are in a spot where alot of markets are in the course of 2 day rallies against trends, and those rallies come from divergences. These are often tricky, which way to go on them? I know when I have jumped quickly in these situations I have generally been wrong, so I am going to wait for a day or two. Crude, Euro, ES all are bouncing in this fashion right now and since I mentioned the projection tool showed a sharp move, so far we are right on course with that. There is no reason to step in front of it yet. I do not know if it is the beginning of a change in short term momentum to up, or just a hesitation for another leg down in these. The DX as per the market correlations, is the opposite scenario.
I do think the above situation in the BOND market is something to keep a very close eye on. There have been alot of inflation bugs out there who have so far been wrong. I have been in the deflation camp and still am. The above Bond market chart pretty much shows that I have been right and the inflation folks have been wrong. However, with all that is happening, it is inevitable that at some point inflation is going to rear it's ugly head. If a big selloff were to occur in BONDS it would indicate that the inflation wave has begun. I think that could well coincide with a stock market rally in October. All the pieces will fit together then.