Here is the SP 500 short trade I entered last week that I exited last night. I had originally been aiming for a target in the 1039 area, but when we just fell straight down for 4 days, I felt that a bounce was going to occur and did not want to sit through it. This is the single largest gain in a trade I have ever made, I had alot of contracts in my various accounts in this trade since the stop was so small. I never feel bad when I get a windfall like this even if it falls short of the target price. Had we been see sawing up and down with a downward bias I would have stayed with this, but there was a very short term buy signal that was there today if we took out Friday's high, so I decided to ring the register.
What I am looking for here is a small bounce for a day or two, then I will be looking for another short entry pattern. I do think we have some trouble brewing here. If you look at the moonshot that is going on in Bonds, that tells me the big players are out in front in flight to safety mode. As per usual, I could be wrong, but that is my current take. If we were to stabilize right here, and start to move up, then I would change my view. We can never know the future, but what we can always be sure of is what we will do when certain things happen. I think the higher probability is we continue down here after a brief pause. I am not going to go long just to try and catch a couple of days up against the trend here.
Here is the GOLD trade again which is creeping upward. There is one potential target in the 1240 area. I have not yet decided if I will exit there if we get there. There is some logic behind that number that I will not disclose here, and the rules are not met for that exit to be done today if we get there. I will need to re-evaluate tonight to determine if I will try to exit there or not on Tuesday. Just for the sake of discussion, it is one potential short term spot to take profits. This market has de-coupled from stocks to some degree recently, so it is hard to say how a up or down stock move might effect this market. Until recently they want almost tick for tick together.
That correlation is an anomaly, history shows no such consistent relationship. However, this has been a strange time, and as I have mentioned many times, you have to be aware of what is correlating nowdays to keep your risk in line.