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Saturday, August 28, 2010

IT IS ALL ABOUT STOCKS



Here we were yesterday plunging again until Bernanke's speech. Ironically the context of his speech was negative in that it indicated the economy was softer than the spin masters have been telling us it is. However, we got a moon shot rally? There are alot of ways you can look at this, and one of them is certainly that a futures buy program campaign by the PPT might have been launched right there. Based on what normally triggers these programs with institutions it is possible that could also have been at hand here, but the timing of this certain at the very least ought to raise an eyebrow or two.


The FED certainly has figured out what a dumb ass trader like I am has, the whole world is keying off US stock price movements. If they want to avoid deflation, they need to make stocks move up so everything else will. So far they have certainly accomplished a miracle in my opinion. If they can hold this here until the fall, the prospects for a republican takeover of the house and possibly the senate could generate a big stock market rally. They have to contain dips for about another month to get us into the seasonally bullish time zone. It is hard to bet against these guys, they are the house after all.


If for some reason we do get a sharp drop which it does not appear will happen now, I think it is a buying opportunity for a hold of several months for the average stock player. I may even take 100k or so and just do that with a few stocks. I hate tying up any money for that long, but this could be a 20 percenter or more in my view so I may do it.


Here are the other moves that I think are setup for this coming week:


Swiss Franc - continued rally
Gold - selling opportunity
DX - buying opportunity
EURO - selling opportunity
COTTON - shorting opportunity
SUGAR - selling opportunity


All of these are setups, not trades. This means that they are possibly in conditions that a move in those directions will happen. Entering the trades correctly is another matter, and I may not do any of those, but they are what I am primarily watching.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hi mr Chris Johnston, I found your blog by mistake but i am very happy to do so, because your analysis are so valuable to me... I am currently reviewing all your post since the start, it's very educational, but I was wondering if you could direct me to educational material you could advice. Thx a lot, keep up the good work, Benjamin.

Chris Johnston said...

Benjamin

Since I am a Larry Williams student primarily, I would refer you to his website which is Ireallytrade.com

I have studied just about every way to trade there is over the last 20+ years, so my trading is somewhat of a combination of quite a few different things. However, for the most part, the core of it is from Larry's teachings. In addition I have a personal relationship with him so I am biased towards his work for that reason also.

There are many different ways you can go about this and you may be able to search the web and find some of Larry's things for free scatterred about, I don't know. He is the best trader that I have ever met. His material is not cheap but it is well worth it. I have no idea what your level of experience is so it is hard to advise you on this, but you cannot go wrong as a starting point by finding some of his teachings and reading them.

Anonymous said...

Thank you very much for your response. I am already currently starting to study Larry Williams work with some materials I manage to get my hands on and I must say I really enjoy the way he teachs, but I also know it's a long way before I will manage to handle all this stuff.

Just curious if you know how he builds his cycles indicator in TradeNavigator ( for exemple the 4 years cycle )?

Thanks again !

Chris Johnston said...

Yes I do know but can't give up everything for free here. I will tell you that he uses tools that are in genesis already, that should be enough of a hint for you to figure this out.

I personally do not think they are worth much other than just big picture analysis.