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Monday, July 17, 2006

Here is today's S&P trade. The Friday Day Trade wound up with a small loss at day's end. This is an overnight trade based on an entirely different pattern.

There is no doubt that the trend of the market is down, but we are significantly oversold. This does not mean that we can not get more oversold. It simply means that the odds of some type of bounce are greater from a situation like this.

After having taken the two losses last week in the day trading system, I went back to the computer to look at the patterns. I did in fact find a subtle difference in the pattern that did give those two days I was buying a downward bias. The two patterns were modified to take the new research into account.

For example, Wednesday's down close with a larger range than the day before, and the next bar opening below that low, has on average lost $607/trade. This is a bias that we want to have in our favor not against us. The pattern that I had indicating a buy on the opening of Thursday did not take this into account unfortunately.

The biggest part of trading, is adapting to changing market conditions. I just provided an example of that.

2 comments:

powayseller said...

You are resilient, Chris. Here's hoping the next trade will be a big win for all!

Chris Johnston said...

It was, I was long on yesterdays big upmove in the stock market. I did not post the trade in the blog because I do not post them all. I just post the ones that are educational, that one was just a no brainer and not worth discussing just to brag about a win.