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Sunday, July 09, 2006

Here is the updated weekly Gold chart.

At this point, the uptrend has held, and the commercials are still long, at about 91% on a relative basis. Open Interest also dropped on that pullback, while the commercials bought it. This is a bullish combination.

For now the uptrend remains intact, and only long side trades should be taken. If that low at 561.50 is violated, the game is over here for a long time. These huge run up blow off type of moves that pullback, then rally again like this has, should not go below the recent pullback low.

When they do, it likely becomes a high probability multi year topping pattern. It is too soon to tell if this would happen. For now, the trend is still up on both the daily and weekly charts.

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