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Thursday, August 16, 2012

A PENNY (QUARTER) FOR YOUR THOUGHTS?


I just received an offer of .25 for my PFG claim, might as well be a penny. Any of you that have claims of over 50k will be contacted soon if you have not already been. If you have less than that the offers will probably be less at this point. I don't think there is any reason to bite at this right now. Just the tax right off alone for most people will get you back that percentage or more. We are nearing the motion for the first transfer, which is likely to be close to that amount as far as I can tell. I am sitting tight.




It is time to get rid of all the negative thoughts, we are on the verge of full on bull mode again. A 5 year old would have felt we never left that mode probably. Guess what, he would have been right. It is always so easy after the fact to see the trends, but we have to have some rules for identifying them as we plod along. The ones I use got whipsawed here, plain and simple. I missed the memo where they teach people who talk about trading on the web, to never admit when they are wrong. I don't believe in being dishonest like all these other people are.

My plan now going forward is to buy dips here. There are so many things going on here that are bullish, there is no reason to get carried away with all the political BS about Barry vs Romney, who is better or worse. Who will make stocks rise etcc. Interestingly enough, there is a slight historic edge in market gains, to democratic administrations over Republicans. It is not enough of a difference to matter, but the point is Socialism is not necessarily bad for the US Stock market. It might be bad for our society, which is how I feel, but just for stock prices alone, it is not.

Here are two road maps that show average prices in the third year of a presidential office as well as the fourth year of the term. You can see in the fourth year, we are tracking that dead on thus far this year.







These just average out all the years, but I think you can see how accurate this has been this year. This tells us to expect strong prices for a bit here, then a dip into the actual election. After that we should get a good rally. This does not take into account party affiliations. This is blind data, what we should base things off. Since now the short term trend is up, and the cycles are up, we should be bullish. We will have to see come September 1st, how things look. For the next two weeks we should be off to the races it appears.

Good Trading



5 comments:

Anonymous said...

hi Chris,

It is outrageous that you got an offer of 25 cents. How does it make sense in the first place? Do they mean that the remaining segregated fund is only tens of thousand dollars?

I think you obviously reject that offer. Dun know if you intend to pursue the matter further. It's so sad to see years of hard-work just gone to the drain like that!

TraderJ.

HT said...

CJ - What is your opinion on the Japanese Yen from the short side?

I have given up trying to short the stock indexes. The commercials are so short this rally yet we keep going up. Confirmed sell signals are really hard to come by in the S&Ps these days. Maybe it is the election year bias that is screwing with me. Great post btw...

Anonymous said...

I really think one needs to filter the data for presidential elections in that, "is the current president a democrat republican, and is the sitting president up for re-election or lame duck."

For example bush in 2008 was a lame duck, he didn't need to boost the market to get re-elected.

Where obama today wants to keep power and will do whatever it takes.

I wonder if that info can be back tested with a filter

Jerome Hamilton said...

Hope that I could also know Futures Trading to be a futures trader like you. Keep informing everybody about your great work and soon you will be respected.

Chris Johnston said...

Jerome, thanks for the nice comment.

HT, the Yen move already happened, it is oversold now. That does not mean it won't keep going down, but the low risk entry in terms of dollar risk is already gone.

Trader J

The offer was from a bad debt buying company. Keep in mind they are in this to make money, so the cheaper they can buy the better off they are. It probably means they are anticipating that we will wind up getting back about half of the money. At this stage in MF the offers were about 50 - 60 cents, and they are going to wind up getting all their money back now it appears.

He told me the offers will adjust as more information comes out. Of course they could go down. There is always the possibility that a judge will give all of our money to a bank like with Sentinel. They will adjust the offers up or down as this thing progresses. He was a very nice guy in all honesty, and I had a nice chat with him. It is just business, if he can buy a claim the size of mine for 25 cents, and we get say 80% back in the end, he would have a home run on his hands. They just try and pick off what they can as things move along.

As far as the presidential cycles, yes you could go back and manually place in the years for those conditions and run the tests. I am not going to do that but anyone who has genesis software, could easily do that. If someone wants to do that and email me the charts, I would be more than happy to post them in the blog.

mktwzrd1@gmail.com