The topic of today is really meant to be that I am trying to short the Russell again tomorrow since my order was not filled today. However, I also have been looking at Copper. Just to please the crowd I have the COT stuff on here. This shows what is a typical pattern, they are long against a down trend in price. In cases like this I think their positions are meaningless. I have at admit that I do like to watch the COT data, but in reality I cannot remember the last time I made an actual trade with what they are doing in mind. In a case like this what I would want to see is for them to shift to the short side quickly on a rally in this down trend. When you see a bear flag in a down trend, with the COT data showing the commercials going to the short side, that is a lot more meaningful than what is going on here. I think sells are the way to play here right at the moment.
I mentioned in the topic above, it was time to try the Russell again. I do have orders in under the markets current price in case we break.
Once again, I don't see anything worth discussing in the COT picture here. This trade is basically just based on some short term patterns I use to trade with. This is the weakest of the three Bernanke's ( Stock Indexes for new readers ). I really think the tape action in the ES is pretty bullish, but still see it in my weekly sell zone at the moment. That tells me that if I get any sells I have to take them whether I like them or not.
The Bonds are bouncing sharply tonight and are above now where I exited my short. The reason I bring that up is that once you exit a trade, there is a tendency to look back if it keeps going in the direction you were positioned, and second guess your exit. You should not do that. Follow your plan and live with the results. You never know what will happen next and you will find more often than not when you get out, the exit winds up being better than you thought. That has been my experience.