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Thursday, August 09, 2012

UNO MAS




The topic of today is really meant to be that I am trying to short the Russell again tomorrow since my order was not filled today. However, I also have been looking at Copper. Just to please the crowd I have the COT stuff on here. This shows what is a typical pattern, they are long against a down trend in price. In cases like this I think their positions are meaningless. I have at admit that I do like to watch the COT data, but in reality I cannot remember the last time I made an actual trade with what they are doing in mind. In a case like this what I would want to see is for them to shift to the short side quickly on a rally in this down trend. When you see a bear flag in a down trend, with the COT data showing the commercials going to the short side, that is a lot more meaningful than what is going on here. I think sells are the way to play here right at the moment.

I mentioned in the topic above, it was time to try the Russell again. I do have orders in under the markets current price in case we break.




Once again, I don't see anything worth discussing in the COT picture here. This trade is basically just based on some short term patterns I use to trade with. This is the weakest of the three Bernanke's ( Stock Indexes for new readers ). I really think the tape action in the ES is pretty bullish, but still see it in my weekly sell zone at the moment. That tells me that if I get any sells I have to take them whether I like them or not.

The Bonds are bouncing sharply tonight and are above now where I exited my short. The reason I bring that up is that once you exit a trade, there is a tendency to look back if it keeps going in the direction you were positioned, and second guess your exit. You should not do that. Follow your plan and live with the results. You never know what will happen next and you will find more often than not when you get out, the exit winds up being better than you thought. That has been my experience.

Good Trading


4 comments:

Robert said...

Chris

Around what price would you short the Russell--Its trading down over 3% tonight ---

Chris Johnston said...

I am just waiting for the prior days low to get taken out before I do anything. It is still an inside bar I am not sure where you are getting that 3% it is not down anywhere near that much?

Robert said...

Chris
Overnight the Russell future were down ...could of been wrong about the 3%--Anyway U.S. stocks opened lower then camped near the S&P 500 1400 until the 2:15 PM Buy Program Express left the station a few minutes late taking us into positive territory to end the week.
did you catch the action the last 10 minutes or so--Your government at work for you--what a joke this has become--I guess as you have said just stay long .

Chris Johnston said...

I think it must have been 3/10's of a percent down, maybe you just looked at your chart wrong? Yes agree as per what I showed in Sunday's post, I think that was the PPT there late Friday. Just gut on that call.