DISCLAIMER

PLEASE READ THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE WHICH APPLIES TO ALL CONTENT IN THIS BLOG AS WELL AS ANY OTHER MATERIAL FROM WE ARE FUTURES TRADERS LLC. READING ANY CONTENT BELOW CONSTITUTES AN AGREEMENT BY ALL READERS THAT THEY HAVE READ AND AGREE TO ALL THAT IS SET FORTH IN THE DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS PAGE.


Tuesday, August 14, 2012

SHORT LEASH




I mentioned I was short the Russell yesterday, and here is the entry and exit for the trade. The rules had called for me waiting until Monday's high went on Tuesday to exit, but I ignored them. Why?

When I see the Fed buying futures like what we saw on Friday, I am immediately put on the alert to have a very tight leash on any short positions coming into the last hour of a day, when the market is down for the day. When we went down early yesterday after seeing them active last Friday, I knew I had to be looking for them to reverse the market late Monday. If they did I was going to scratch the trade, and that is exactly what happened. I am not going to bother complaining about this any more, it just is what it is. I had a decent profit in the trade at one point, and in the last 3 years I have seen so many late day saves that I just accept it as a market condition and move on.

As just one voice in a forum with a thousand readers or so, I just can't have the impact I would like on the Fed buying of ES futures. This should not be going on but it is with the F You I won administration. They did not start this, but they have taken it to a new level without a doubt. If he gets 4 Mas, I can't wait to see how blatant this becomes. For all we know, they will get to the point when the public does not agree with something they are doing, they may short the market and drive it down, then come out and say see what you get for disagreeing with us. That would not surprise me. It certainly does not seem like Romney is anywhere near as petulant or petty as Barry is. If he were to win, I think this would change a little. It will not go away regardless of who wins.

I have to keep this short today but there is one last point to make. I just got copies of some withdrawal checks from PFG earlier this year, when I pulled out profits to pay bills. I found something interesting. They were all drawn from an account at JPM called Segregated Funds. This of course is how it should have been, none of us had any idea US Bank was involved with this. What this tells me is that there is Segregated Funds at JPM now most likely. Of course they have not stated anything at all publicly, those jerkoffs. With 24,000 people having angst over this appearing that most of their money has vanished, the least these people could do is make a statement that they have some money there. However, they have made no comment at all. This of course now is going to have to be a new target for me in addition to B of A. Ironically it was my irrational anger at B of A that kept me out of bankruptcy with PFG. Had I not set six figures aside in a stock account to short B of A, I would have had all of my money stolen. Having that in a different place allowed my family to survive. I guess that means it was not such a bad idea after all? I had not made any recent trades, it had just been sitting there waiting for the right time.

In summary, I think they have a hand in this somehow. They clearly were not a complete pass through. How the money got from them to the other place so it could be stolen is anyone's guess, but it will be determined in the end. What is unknown as well is what percentage of the Seg money JPM had is at Jeffries being held at the moment. Perhaps it is a large percentage, we just don't know. However, we do know now JPM has some Seg money in their hands.

Have to go to job number 2 now unfortunately.

4 comments:

Squire said...

We are almost smack right at the point of the S&P making a new recovery high, which would happen above 1420. Each day is tense and exciting. Except there is little action. For six days we have closed 1401.35, 1402.22, 1402.80, 1405.87, 1404.11, 1403.92.

My expectation is the FED will try to push the S&P to a new recovery high very soon via Wall Street buying futures before the markets open. All that would be needed is some very positive news in the absence of any negative shock to get some follow through.

This would for sure alleviate the FED’s need to announce further action in September. They really don’t want to do it. It would look political.

Should the market break above 1420 with some volume, I think the S&P will next challenge the all time high before any serious decline. Though it wouldn’t necessarily be straight up, but the low will be a higher low than the previous low. Of course this is absent any negative shocks like could come from the Middle East, or an actual economic contraction here.

Chris Johnston said...

hard to disagree with any of that, it is very much like the last few years now just creeping up on light volume. Any declines that last more than a couple of hours are magically eliminated by days end. The tape action is very strong. If we don't have any downside, by trend bands will shift back to long again by the end of the week.

John M said...

I tend to lean to the short side. OK, I lean very heavily to the short side most of the time. Maybe it's a character flaw. But these late day bailouts really frost me.

Chris, I have to say that JPM doesn't look like an angel in the theft of your money. I hope they have to pay for it somehow.

Chris Johnston said...

John, JPM is the only hope for any significant recovery. If they cannot be proven to have done something wrong this is going to be a very bad outcome. I think they did personally, but I have no knowledge of anything specifically. It just seems strange to me that my money went there when deposited, my withdrawals came from there. How in the world did this guy get the money he stole out of that account without someone at JPM either being complicit or breaching their fudiciary duties in some way?

We know there have to be several people involved in this and they will catch them eventually. Just the shear number of transactions dictate that. I just hope one of them is at one of the banks. We can release the balloons if that turns out to be the case.