GOLD

The consolidation/flag pattern in Gold continues. Today is a good example of why "front running" the breakout as I mentioned yesterday, is not a good idea. Waiting for a clear breakout of these types of patterns is important.

I would recommend waiting either for a close outside of the pattern, or at the very least a break above the high of 4 days ago, not including todays bar. That would mean the 2nd bars high that the red line connects to.

Discretion is required when playing these types of formations. This is why I do not trade like this. However, you have the fundamentals at your back so a breakout of this pattern, with the underlying trend and seasonal tendency, has a reasonable expectation for a profitable trade.

Historically the 7th trading day of the month ( yesterday ) and the 12th trading day of the month, have been the 2 best days in August to buy for a short term move. Yesterday, the 7th was profitable buying the open and exiting this am. It remains to be seen if the 12th will be. It would be a nice combination if a breakout were to occur on that 12th(bullish day) trading day of the month.

Rarely do things work out that perfectly in futures, but it is something to be aware of.