ANOTHER BAD LOAN ANOTHER MARKET RALLY
I realize this image is fuzzy, I had to resize it and I felt it was appropriate for it to be fuzzy. Fuzzy math is what is the rule of the day now. Here we are again with essentially another socialist payoff, and zing a market rally is here. I read they have not agreed to any austerity measures. Why would they? The world is setup now as a battle between those who want to remain priveleged at the expense of the masses, and those who do not believe in that. I am of course in the latter camp. Let these damn people file bankruptcy, let our companies who can't make it file bankruptcy. Instead we make bad loans and leak top secret foreign intelligence information to get re-elected.
The reason this is all relevant to us should be pretty obvious at this point. The commercials for the stock market have become the central banks. When they want a rally to occur, one occurs. It is very different than the traditional following of the COT report, where often commercials can be on the opposite side of a trend for months before it changes. Now in stocks, when the central banks want a rally, they can make it happen in minutes literally. This does make trading the stock indexes and stocks very tricky on a short term basis.
I am working on what I am calling the bas ackward stock trading model. It entails doing virtually the opposite of what I would have done 10 years ago. Let's face it, this world is not the same and what worked 10 years ago does not work now. I will show some trades I make once I start implementing this ,and describe in general what it is, once I get all the kinks out.
There was a buy on tonight's open indicated by the Bond System, which was filtered by the one filter I am using, which is going straight down at the moment saying not to buy them no matter what patterns are there. Now it is time to see how far this rally goes. I hope it goes up into my sell zone for the ES, which is in the 1360 area at the moment. It could come down some since it is a fluent band, but that is where it stands coming into this week.
We are continuing our basing pattern in Gold, so I am watching there for a buy to setup. My short term tools are bullish there at the moment, so that is why I am looking up. These can change obviously after a few days action. Most markets to me appear to be in bounce, don't sell me right here yet mode.
One market that might be setting up a sell here is the Yen.
We have broken the trend line up now and taken out the last pivot, so a bounce could be a sell here. This one bears watching this week. It also might be telling us stocks are going up, because this has been the flight to quality spot along with bonds recently.
I am still short the Natural Gas market as per the trade I showed the other day. I have moved the stop down a little now. This is a wild market so you sure as hell never know where it is going next.
Cattle now has to break quite a bit for an entry on the short side but I am still following that one. If it breaks hard I will enter on a retracement. I think this market is just going to head back up the way it looks.
That is it for tonight
4 comments:
This rally is amazing. I guess the COT spec longs in the stock indexes benefit even with the commercials really short.
Your reversed signal experiment should be interesting, Chris. Not sure that there's not a sanity bias from past experience. Be your own 5 year old and keep asking "why" from the most neutral expectation outlook. Looking forward to see how it works. --Mark
Steve
The reality is that the COT stuff is basically worthless when it comes to the indexes. The real reason is that we have no idea where they classify the Feds trading activities, and they are really the ones who push the stock markets.
Mark the reverse logic I have my doubts on but we have seen completely different stock index patterns in the last 3 years from what has ever occurred before, so it is time to consider it might be the new norm. Aberrations don't generally last this long.
Well, I personally have been thinking about just doing the opposite of what I should do, but I think there is more logic into breaking down your system and rebuilding it from scratch. Suppose you get good trades for a while, but then a losing streak occurs. You would have nothing to fall back on, no real logic, just the reverse of logic..
And, I think, once this episode of exponential debt on debt creating comes to an end in one epic crash rather soon, things will get back to normal. But this could be another few years, depending on how long the fed is given credit.
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