NOT TO SAY I TOLD YOU SO BUT.........
Before I get to today's topic in the head line, here is the latest on the Bond System. The chart here has just all the trades that generate, Gross with no filters. I mentioned the other day that occasionally I would filter them. The first sell at the top was filtered by a proprietary method as was today's buy, even though the chart shows both the trades. The filter is not programmable so I have to do it manually. So there was a very good short trade that took place yielding 37/32's since the last update. We don't know what today's would bring but it does not matter either way, it would have been filtered. It is currently in the black had it been done. I am getting closer and closer to trading this again with real dollars. I need to do a bit more refining with it, should be done soon. I have been so busy I am having a hard time doing a post every day.
Here is why I said I had my suspicions on the one day wonder move in Gold last week. You can see now the whole move has been reversed. We still could move into basing action and wind up being set up well for a long, but chasing moves like that in a downtrend rarely pays off, and it would not have in this case unless you exited MOC that day. If you recall I stated at the time without knowing what was going to happen next that I would have done exactly that. I don't feel compelled to trade anything unless my direction is completely clear. It may be wrong, but it needs to be clearly by my rules for trading. This market does not have that in either direction here so it is a pass. The next chart shows one that is completely clear in terms of it being by my rules to be in. Natural Gas did set up for a short a couple of days ago, and I was trailing stops underneath until today when the order got filled at yesterday's low.
The first target is the low to the left, will we get there who knows? I will just trail it down and see what happens. I don't see any trade in the stock indexes here either way. I did come across something very interesting in Chick Goslin's book Trading Day by Day. He talks about the PPT at length, and his comments reflect essentially my view on this exactly. If you can do it via viewing a couple of select pages at Amazon, it is on 258 - 259. It is the exact reason as to why the stock indexes are the hardest market to trade. You combine government intervention on only one side, the buy side, with a zillion one lotters trying to scalp $25 at a time, and you have a mess on your hands.
It appears to me that most markets have now bounced enough to mess up continuation short setups, so not a ton of things to look at. I am watching Live Cattle for a sell at the moment but nothing so far.