SELLING TIME

Here is the VIX which is drifting into the buy zone which is a sell for the Bernanke's. You can see that just stand alone this has been kinda lousy recently in calling swings having only been right half the time in recent periods. After having sat in on a webinar yesterday advertising another sure fire emini system that almost never loses, I contemplated my response to the follow up call from the presenter which I knew was coming. I have to admit it was painful listening to the presentation as they danced around what they were doing like they always do, enticing you to fork out several thousand dollars to find out. They should have named it the Pelosi, you have to pass it to find out what is in it etc..

They had some magic way of determining what side to trade that they would not reveal. The problem is they did reveal it in the email luring you in, it was the 50 period moving average. Above it do buys below it do sells. Makes sense, but hardly magic in my eyes. When they called I told them I wanted to see a real account statement that had traded this for 2 years in size, not 1 lots. Of course they did an immediate duck out on that because as I knew, there was no such accounting of things. This was simulated most likely using one lots. The problem with selling systems especially with the emini, is that you have a ton of one lotters that will trade it and not follow the rules correctly due to fear. It will result in the trades not working as well. As the seller you get to pocket the money, but as the consumer who is following the rules, it will not live up to it's billing. I have seen this movie a thousand times and the end does not change.

Be careful with stuff like this. You can see how I did things with the Bond System here, calling out real trades as they went along just in a free site, so we could see how they did. It has been profitable but not that great. There was a buy on the open last night, so that system is long at 148'12 for today exit first profitable opening. It is unlikely I will offer that up because it is not performing like I want it to. I know if I make it available people won't follow the rules, they never do. However, the Bond market trades with huge volume, so dumb decision by subs don't effect the trades. Also, it is not a scalping approach so not honoring a stop really close to the market is not part of the equation.

Getting to the matter at hand now, the VIX is indicating we are in a selling area now, so I am looking for sell signals. I do not have one for today. Even though the VIX is a good starting point for edges with the ES it is noisy, so you need other qualifiers to trade with it. I have some and they are not confirming this yet.

That is all for today, the hand is still making it tough to type even though it has improved some.