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Tuesday, June 12, 2012

"IT'S OFFENSIVE"





It is not only offensive according to Barry to be accused of something, it is more offensive to have committed that act of which you are accused. Being a moron is just not cute anymore, please vote this bad experiment back into community organizing. We had something equally offensive to everything that moron does in the financial markets yesterday. We actually had a PPT rally thwarted by reality that it was more bad news they were trying to spin as good news. I am sure if comrade Ben had done a press conference he might of called this offensive as well. What does seem to be happening in general now, is people are waking up and realizing things are somewhat dicey. They are not blindly accepting the lies from the government or their what should be illegal attempts to manipulate markets. As I have mentioned time and time again, manipulation attempts only last so long. Markets do eventually go to where they want to go, their equilibrium point.

I am sure readers notice I constantly post charts with different things on them. As a trader you have to be always looking for better ways to do things. You just never know when the next innovation in anything in life might come around the corner. I have shown the middle graph before, which is a tool I have been working on the trade the ES. The idea is when we get outside the bands, the market will reverse it's current direction. You can see the other sell signals, all of which have worked except the one I have labeled. I do not recommend having your whole plan be to spot reversals, that is a loser's game. Trust me I have tried playing it at one point in my career. However, what we seem to have here is a sell signal ( a reversal signal with the bands ), that is in sync with the trend. In theory this should be a good trade. We had such a big reversal in the VIX yesterday, that the market almost got too oversold too quickly to get short. Perhaps we back and fill for a few days before going back down?

That is just speculation as to whether we do that or not, and I do admit I do not have all the kinks worked out in how to use this new tool yet. Sometimes I get going in so many different directions on research and new ideas, I don't know what the hell I am doing with it. This is why I always have a core strategy and never change it until I am fully prepared with whatever new things I am working on. More often than not the new ideas do not pan out to be worth anything. However, this one I think is. I really am beginning to think the ES has to be traded differently than other markets due to all the reasons I have stated in here previously.

Anyway, this gives me a reason to look back to the down side here now. I also have the Taylor ROC pivot in here. Taylor wrote a book about a 3 day cycle in the markets, and this is one of the tools he suggested using. I have looked at this method many times over the years, and I am not convinced it has any real merit. I was just playing around with it again the last few days with a new twist that was a bust. Go ahead and study that method if you wish, perhaps you can find a way to make money with it.

I am still looking at the Yen this week hoping a sell sets up. Most other things are kind of in between at press time here. My filter tool for the Bond System was wrong yesterday, that trade turned out to be a big winner. As is the case with any tool, sometimes they filter good trades out as well. I moved my stop down again in Natural Gas since that marked is moving in my favor. We will just have to see if it goes to the target or bounces and picks me off first.

Good Trading






4 comments:

kisfutures App Stores said...

I'm still learning from you, but I'm trying to achieve my goals. I certainly enjoy reading all that is posted on your blog.Keep the information coming. I loved it!

John M said...

Sadly, the only choices we are left with this election season--yet again--are Moron 1 and Moron 2. Vote early and often for the Moron that seems slightly less moronic to you than the other. Someday we may actually get a viable candidate who has some grasp on reality beyond politics.

Anonymous said...

hi Chris. Your natural gas trade seems going well. Do you trade intra-day at lower timeframes as well?

It's interesting following the thoughts of an experienced trader.

TraderJ

Chris Johnston said...

Generally I do not trade intra day on lower time frames. The main reason is that I do use some indicators and to have them work properly you have to use tick charts not time charts. Using tick charts requires death staring the screen for hours and I don't like doing that. Contrary to what is written, most day traders lose money. There are very few that consistently make a profit.

John the political system is so broken it is a sad state of affairs. I remember in college there was a question in my economics course on the final exam that was "Why will a really intelligent person never become president?" The answer was of course that anyone that bright would be smart enough to know what a no win proposition the job was.

Romney may not excite anybody, but Barry has to be stopped. He is going to ruin the world economically if he gets another 4. He might have a high IQ but he is sure dumb on the job and we can't afford a dumb amateur right now regardless of whether everything that ills the world is W's fault or not. We are where we are someone has to man up and do the right things. The leaks to try to get re-elected is maybe the most despicable thing a pres has ever done. There have been prior leaks over the years, but none like this. Romney is clean he does not seemingly have all the skeletons that Barry seems to have. Also, I don't think he will spend his whole term blaming others. I don't recall a pres ever doing that like Barry does. I don't even blame others for things and I am nobody.