THE WORLD IS IMPERFECT
I have been studying several new ideas recently trying to hone them in, and the one thought that always comes back to me is that no matter what I do to try and make them better, it does not work. One thing I have a hard time accepting is that things just are what they are. You have a basic idea, and if it requires layer upon layer of qualifiers, the idea is just no good. Make no mistake about it, good ideas in trading are hard to come by. If you find yourself tweaking something too much, chances are what you are tweaking just sucks to begin with and should be pitched.
The good news is that we don't have to be perfect to succeed in most things, we just have to be good. I am surprised this morning to see the Bernanke's this weak in front of the announcement from the Supreme Court, but that tells me the insiders think they are going to uphold the law. It will be interesting to see what happens. I would have a position in the ES if my methods had dictated one, but they are telling me there could be a sell tomorrow but nothing for today. As a result I am flat there other than some day trading I might do.
The above chart is the 10 Year Notes, just the school of simplicity. I have no indicators on it at all. If you could read price patterns alone well, you would have all you need to trade well. If we strip away all the crap, what is clear to see is the we have had a sideways consolidation move in a very strong up trend. In as much as I have been looking for a potential sell here, I see no reason to be short until the trend line I have drawn in breaks. Most of the time these slim jims break in the direction of the trend, and we are seeing that early today. My indicators I use are not indicating a buy, so I am not long on this breakout. If we fly up out of here I will miss the move.
Most of the markets are telling me to look for sells in the next few days, almost no long setups are in the making.
That is all for today, I will skip all the editorial crap I sometimes throw out which probably irritates some readers anyway.
3 comments:
re: possible 10-year note trade
Hi Chris, because the trend is up, I'm looking for a ledge breakout to the upside - and would be less willing to go short a ledge breakout to the downside.
My two cents.
Robert
Reasonable logic Robert, although by ledge rules the way I use them we have more bars than 10 so I would not play this as a ledge per se.
i am really surpised that more traders are not talking about an election year where the sitting president is running for reelection. This is the main difference between today and 2008.
Post a Comment