DESK TOP SETS
I am not sure how I got these, but Saturday a desk top set of long term charts arrived at my mail box at Green Acres. I call my ranch Green Acres because I was a city slicker like Oliver for most of my life until we moved here. It just seems appropriate. As I was flipping through these charts I took a gander at the worlds favorite market GOLD.
It certainly is obvious isn't it that we should triple from here?
None of us have any real idea of what will happen in the future even though we all try to predict it regularly. However, does this really look like a situation you would bet the farm on the price tripling from? You really have to be a cult member to sign off on that take as many have. There is certainly no question we have one big ass uptrend here, that cannot be disputed. I would argue this is the greatest move in the history of the commodities markets. I have never seen one go this far in terms of statistical measures, without a huge reversion. The branches on the tree do get weaker as you get higher off the ground, and this is one tall tree. I will not rehash what I have spoken of recently beyond just posting what I have already done.
There is now talk of more stimulus, now that is a shocker isn't it? When in doubt, go into more debt, that is Barry's motto. When his henchmen talk they don't seem to even acknowledge debt, probably the most frightening thing about them. Also, I don't understand why he doesn't serve up Holder and just replace him with someone else who will discriminate against white people with impunity? There certainly are enough of them around. I wish I had been the guy those panthers tried to intimidate, that would have been a blast for TV viewers, just watching them fall. They would not skip a beat by replacing him, so it is quite peculiar. There is so much strategy that goes into these things, it is impossible to know what the real reasons for certain things that don't appear to make sense are. However, the distraction all of his shenanigans create serve as great cover for what most of us know, the economy is not in a good state right now. Hence, QE3 or some other variation of some type is likely coming. They are going to piss away any chance of Quattro mas if the stock market does not hold here, and this is a poker game they can stack the deck on.
Living here in California, they just plan on continuing to raise spending and taxes, then use funny math to tell all of us we have a reasonable budget. I saw a huge increase in k-12 spending in the new budget in the paper the other day, why not? I think we should pay all the teachers on a scale with Lebron James, but even then people would complain we don't spend enough on education. The liberals have ruined California and I think it is just a matter of time before I leave. I can't let these douchebags take my money just to hand it off to unions. Oops I forgot, lifeguards do deserve pensions of 100k per year at age 50, silly me.
It is time to find a way to short California, and I am not quite sure how to do it but I have a few ideas. I will expand upon this later. It does seem it is in the Bond arena but you have to think the Feds will bail them out at least at some point, so this is a tough call as to how exactly to place this bet. Bankruptcy is a certainty but timing this is going to be very difficult. I don't think the trade is imminent, so I am not spending much time on it yet. If Barry loses, it will be time to look for this trade.
From a short term standpoint the Bernanke's are making a stand here, and the trend has turned up on a daily basis. We have made higher short term lows after holding at an important level. I still see the weekly trend as down and am looking to sell rallies at higher levels than where we presently are.
You can see just strictly from a basic market structure perspective, the trend has changed back to up. We took out the pivot prior to the lowest low, then made a higher short term low, then off we have gone. I am looking for shorts now in the resistance zone which is only about 20 points higher now. Maybe we will just power through it and the trend will change back to up. There is the future of the next few decades of our country at stake in making sure the stock market does not drop here, so it will be very interesting to see if they can pull it off. If they are truly going to change us into a completely socialist country, they need two things. First, a stock rally, and second for that to lead to four more for Barry. They have done some incredible damage to us, there is no question, but for them to complete the task, they need more time. In the other corner is the rational part of the universe that knows what they are doing is ruining us. That sector is fighting back, so this really is fascinating if you can detach yourself from this and observe from afar. There have undoubtedly been prior periods of time where landmark changes in cultures were either attempted and failed, or did succeed. Those periods are what makes history books worth reading. I think we are at one of those seminal moments.
I am currently studying several short term ideas with the ES, and it is interesting in spite of all of the changes on the surface to things, how some tools have stood the test of time very well while others have not. For now I don't have a trade I am looking at for the indexes, but overall I want to sell a rally at higher price levels at the moment. I am also looking to short Bonds up here, but they have held up too well thus far for any short entries. You may ask why I want to short Bonds and stocks due to their inverse relationship? The answer is I trade where my patterns take me, I don't trade off intermarket relationships ever. When it comes time to a setup being there, I take the trade and don't listen to noise like that. Perhaps for a period they will trade together? Perhaps one will move way more than the other and I will be in that trade, hence making more on one than the other loses? Perhaps I am just wrong? All equal possibilities so why bother trying to guess? I just take the trades.