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Tuesday, June 26, 2012

WISH LIST




I am hoping for a bounce here back up into where the red band is to get short this market. Anything at that level or above would be good. I have the COT stuff displayed here on this chart, but I rarely consider that when it comes to the ES. I have discussed why in the past so no need to rehash that again. One thing we have on the horizon this week is the Supreme Court announcement on the health care bill. I would never normally even consider this, but seemingly the election might be at stake with the outcome, so it could be a market mover. I don't know when the announcement is due whether it is during our day session here or after the close during the night session.

I think it is a complete guess what will happen and how it might move the markets so I have no clue which way to lean. I thought before yesterday it was likely the bill would be ruled unconstitutional, but after the Arizona fiasco I am not so sure now. I noticed Kagan recused herself on the Arizona bill which of course she should have more surely done on the health care bill, which she did not. I think that tells us she knew they did not need her on the one where they might on the other. She was involved in the initial drafting of some parts of the bill, so it is hard to understand how that would not present a conflict of interest. Sadly even judges are now involved in politics. It would be nice if they could just decide the law without being influenced like politicians, but it is what it is in both directions. I don't think the law should be decided more conservatively at some times and liberally at others. It should be a neutral bias, but it is not as we all have seen over and over. Guess if you want to but I am not going to. I do think there are a couple of things in this new bill that make sense and most things suck. 

I don't see why every time a party has an idea that is good, they try to load up a bunch of other crap that is terrible to go with it, to shove it down everyone's throat. The pre-existing conditions aspect is something that should be in there. You are screwed if you have something major, and that should not be the case in my view. Lost in all of this is I am sure in some dark hole I never want to be in, there is some scheme for insurance companies to make a bunch of money, and that pisses me off. They jacked their premiums way up well before any new stuff ever even kicked in. They blamed it on the new law. I do sometimes see why liberals get pissed of at corporations, they do the wrong thing often if left unattended. There have to be some regulations, but the problem with regulations is power, and most politicians are in the game for power, not to do some greater good. There are of course some exceptions, I am generalizing here.

In spite of all of this, if going into it I do have a verified setup in either direction by my rules I will take the trade. I don't pass on trades due to my guess about what a news story might be. The ES appears to be more likely a sell in a few days by my indicators, than it does a buy for whatever that is worth. Maybe that means the bill will be upheld, which should be negative for the market. It is going to cause some severe financial problems going forward if it stands, and that should be in general a negative for the stock market.

I am looking to short the Dollar Index in here.




This is not rocket science here, we just have a break of a trend line and a potential lower short term high than the highest high forming. If we start to move down from here I will get short. Never mind the swing points on the chart, that is just a template from Genesis, I don't use them or even look at them. They show up after the fact, so not they are not worth much. If they are important to you, you just need to learn how to recognize them when they are forming. This is very simple and can be mastered in 30 minutes. Just look for bars surrounded on either side by either lower highs or higher lows. Once you see that just organize them and study their relationships. This is not the grail by any means, but knowing structure does help give a sense of where the trend is.

As luck would have it we had a huge pipe burst at the ranch yesterday and I had to get involved with that. In the process of sawing through a bunch of stuff I smashed my bad hand against something, essentially setting me back quite a bit there. Typing is challenging once again. You know you have trouble when you are trying to cap a water line, you turn off your main water supply, and the water does not stop! I seem to have some other water source as yet unknown here feeding into my pipes.

Looks like the weekend has a project after all, for a one handed poor man's handyman.




2 comments:

S. said...

I really enjoy your marketthoughts.In my opinion, the outcome could be neutral or bad both ways. If accepted, it will bring even more debt, if rejected people cut spending immediately. So both seem bearish to me.

Do you value the small specs in the COT report of ES? And, how do you get into position, is it a breakout day, or the crossing of a resistance level?

Cheerz!

Chris Johnston said...

Yes I do like to look at small specs, but all the COT stuff is good for is giving you a possible indication of a move that might be coming. You cannot time an entry with this stuff. Entries are an entirely different matter that really have nothing to do with COT data.

Agree on your view of the bill, it is a negative either way but the question is how will the markets see it? We will see soon enough, but for now it really is a non event.