MY STATE OF THE UNION

Here is the update on the Natural Gas trade. You can see my trailing stop had been pulled down really close today, and it was picked off when the outside bar formed. I was trying to exit this in the vicinity of the low point on the chart. Some may think I had the stop too tight and perhaps I did. However, once I get a good profit going like this, I really try to trap the market and squeeze it into the exit. When I saw the inside bar form, those often can be the beginning of sideways action or a reversal, so I tightened up and got picked off. I love trades like this and I find that most of the good trades I do are like this, they just go right from the entry and don't see saw or chop around. The best trades typically work immediately.

I had mentioned Cattle recently, and it broke to the downside yesterday. Anyone who shorted that did well. I also mentioned the Yen, I do have orders there to short that market but it does not appear they are going to be filled today.

I have my resting orders displayed here, and unless we get a huge stock rally, I doubt the Yen will move this much during the US session. The big currency moves are typically overnight. In any event I will continue looking for sells in this market for the next few days. Readers may have noticed I have not been discussing COT stuff much lately. I go through phases with that data between thinking it is of no value, and thinking it is really important. I am in one of the former phases right now. As a short term trader the reality is that fundamentals don't typically have a big impact. I do like to be aware of unique situations with the positioning of the big money, but often the moves can take months to happen in sync with that positioning. I do not find direct correlations to good trades I make and COT stuff during the times I study that relationship. I am also so skeptical of how the government might be messing with the numbers now on everything, that I see no reason why they wouldn't be doing it here also. They are burying what the Fed is doing somewhere, and there is no real way of knowing where.

I have a new short term trading model I am working on for the ES that is quite promising so far. It indicates a short position should be on from 1323. In this new approach I am entering in price zones at the market and not above or below highs or lows. I think the highs and lows in this market are not reliable entry points most of the time now. This is due to what the government is doing to intervene on almost a 5 minute chart basis.

I also think it is time to look at shorting Bonds now. I do have some orders in today to do so but they are under the market and I doubt we are going to go down to where they are resting. The last chart of the day is a pic of "little Vinny." These folks to the right are with the local rescue group here in San Diego, and this was a dog show this past weekend. The middle dog is a puppy who is only 4 months old. The other two on the right are two dogs that these two people just rescued. Of course on the left is the monster dog Vinny. Although the ones on the right on under sized for Saints, they still are pretty good sized dogs if you saw them at a dog park. Just look at the size difference between them and Vinny, who is only 9 months old. Walking around this show with him was like being next to Brad Pitt. It was one interview after the next. He was the biggest dog there including a few Great Danes and an Irish Wolfhound. I sure hope he lives a long and healthy life, he is a good boy. I worry about this because he is so big. As a parent you always want a big strong son, the star football player, not a poet. However the reality is really big people or other living beings don't live as long as regular sized ones. We donate money to these people to help them, like most rescues they have a record number of dogs right now on their hands they are trying to find homes for.

May we all become the big dogs of trading.